BJ Deming

What’s Up at Italy’s Campi Flegrei? (May 12, 2024, 2036 UTC)

May 12, 2024, 1:36 p.m., Pacific: “Fine sciame”: the swarm is over. 🙂

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

May 12, 2024, 10:34 a.m., Pacific: Tweeted about an hour ago — no mention of further updates coming in 3-6 hours. Perhaps they are seeing more of a stable pattern now? (Layperson speculation.)

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

May 12, 2024, 6:39 a.m., Pacific: INGV reported a brief swarm on the 10th, with some of the epicenters out in the bay near the caldera’s center (where there is uplift, too).

It was so short that I didn’t mention it here despite the unusual location (swarms usually happen in the Solfatara area). Perhaps I should have because there is another swarm now, and per the INGV’s tweeted graphics, the epicenters are all over the place:

Five hours ago:

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

Four hours ago:

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

An hour ago:

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

INGV is tracking this closely today, though there are no changes in alert level. So will I.

May 7, 2024, 6:38 a.m., Pacific: Here we go again:

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

There was a 3-pointer at 3:47 a.m., local time, but there appear to be just microquakes in that linked list at present.

A quick check of online news did not show any unusually excited coverage. It seems to this layperson that this is thus far following the “typical” Campi Flegrei pattern — still volcanically generated earth movement but not as nerve-wracking as the recent stronger swarms have been.

Typical. Let’s do typical again, Campi Flegrei, now and for a long time to come.

By the way, am still waiting for the April bulletin on Vesuvius…

April 28, 2024, 8:46 a.m., Pacific: The swarm ended quickly, with the strongest tremor of M3.9 occurring a little way offshore.

However, this morning there was a 3-pointer just 400 meters down in the crater of Vesuvius, on the other side of Naples, followed by at least two 1-pointer aftershocks.

A meeting was called; details here (autotranslated).

The alert level at each volcano stays the same; if they ever raise Vesuvius’ level, that gets a pinned post, of course.

Given the shallow epicenter, if this morning’s main shock up there had been volcanic in origin, INGV would have already picked up precursors that would be much stronger than the current “snoring” Vesuvius has otherwise been doing.

They’ve got that fire mountain and its environs thoroughly covered.

It’s true that some volcanoes go off unexpectedly, but as this layperson understands things, that’s only because the precursors were missed through lack of monitoring or the volcano has an open conduit, like Popocatépetl and MErapi (Java).

The conduit in Vesuvius is closed and magma will have to force its way through a lot of rock, setting off INGV’s sensors well before the tiniest throat-clearing puff appears at the summit.

So what caused this morning’s quakes?

Vesuvius had a 2-pointer during the last Campi Flegrei swarm, but it was deep. This is only a lay opinion, but it’s possible that changes in the local stress field from Campi Flegrei’s recent swarm triggered a little stress release from the Vesuvius pile both today and earlier.

More as the situation develops, but in the meantime, both volcanoes are stable at Aviation Codes Yellow (Campi Flegrei) and Green (Vesuvius).

April 27, 2024, 5:28 p.m., Pacific: Another swarm, ongoing:

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

April 22, 2024, 9:38 a.m., Pacific: INGV’s monthly bulletin described a briefly increased uplift. This layperson figures that was the cause of increased seismicity. There were no reports of damage and things appear to have settled into background levels now.

April 14, 2024, 6:46 a.m., Pacific: There has been some swarming lately and INGV did hold a public meeting this week.

However, today the swarming is intense (autotranslated), with a couple of 3-pointers.

The alert level is still Yellow.

November 17, 2023, 9:15 a.m., Pacific: According to the latest INGV bulletin, only 17 quakes were detected this month (through the 12th) and uplift rate has slowed down to 4 mm/month (it was 15 mm/month).

I’ll still keep this pinned, on the understanding that quakes and uplift of any sort are undesirable in such a densely populated urban setting.

November 10, 2023, 5:05 p.m., Pacific: Fanpage has a lot of ads, but they do such a good job of science writing that I stay and read the article. Here (autotranslated), they discuss the summary report of the commission that convened at the end of October, and it is fine coverage of volcanic uncertainty and the difficulties of managing a volcano crisis.

November 8, 2023, 9:02 p.m., Pacific: The inflation has slowed and there have been very few quakes lately, according to INGV’s latest bulletin.

There was also a meeting in Rome with local officials, some of whom, like the mayor of Bacoli, were very upset with the idea of evacuations and an Orange alert.

The outcome of the meeting was repetition of the concerns for steam explosions and, with some magma in the superficial system, of a worst-case scenario of a Monte Nuovo type of eruption.

But, as this article (autotranslated) reports, the alert level remains at Yellow.

The article also describes very neatly what social actions are planned for an Orange and Red alert.

November 2, 2023, 12:31 p.m., Pacific: INGV noted in their most recent bulletin that the rate of inflation slowed a bit over the second half of October.

And a local mayor, like Dr. De Natale before him, turns to Fanpage (autotranslated) with his Orange-alert/evacuation-related argument:

But it must be understood that the orange alert would lead to the evacuation of prisons and hospitals and a blocking of entrances to the Campi Flegrei: this would lead to isolation and would have a significant impact on the local economy. For this reason, such an alarmist communication has sent the population into agitation: it must be understood that here there are no packages to move, but there are people, with lives, jobs, commercial activities.

This is a heart-breaking dilemma, although personally I side with the scientists who point out the dangers.

It is true that volcanoes sometimes “choke” (look like they will get violent and then stop), and countless people have their lives and incomes turned upside down by warnings that appeared to be unjustified.

But they were justified; the boffins were trying to protect as many people as possible from scalding to death in a steam blast or being crushed by the rubble of their homes or being at Ground Zero when magma breaches the surface.

Too, this is unfolding in a country that has shown willingness to press criminal charges against scientists who do not issue warnings (L’Aquila earthquake trials).

Even if it weren’t something as big as Campi Flegrei acting up — possibly with a weakened lid now, too, compared to the Eighties crisis — of course the scientists and their governmental supporters are going to err (if it comes to “err,” which I don’t think it has yet) on the side of caution.

This is a historic event in terms of natural hazard warning terms.

In the US, for instance, they didn’t want to scare people by issuing tornado warnings, but two hapless military mets did anyway — and saved lives and property.

Now such warnings are routine, but so is “storm stress.”

Volcanoes operate more slowly, and with much more extensive damage possible. The costs of warnings and the sociopolitical issues they raise are correspondingly larger.

All I know is that I don’t want there to be people around, if the Solfatara region does this —

— as it well could, without physical warning signs, or worse, if the “Monte Nuovo” scenario occurs.

October 31, 2023, 3:07 p.m., Pacific: I guess this is one result of the talks in Rome. Italy’s Civil Protection Minister has broached the possibility of an Orange alert level (autotranslated), apparently not because of any new developments (INGV’s last bulletin reported that no developments were expected in the short term) but to get everyone on the same page and improve efficiency in response to any trouble (which likely would unfold quickly).

At least one mayor is not happy, but I hope that they are able at least to evacuate the area around Solfatara in case there is a steam blast.

(This is also a post at TalkWeather.)

October 19, 2023, 12:36 a.m., Pacific: A new swarm, per this source (Italian),with 12 small quakes in 7 minutes, the largest thus far M2.2.

October 18, 2023, 2:18 p.m., Pacific: No major changes, as far as I can tell, but I saw this (autotranslated) in the news: Campania and Rome, at least — perhaps the whole country — are moving into SMS alerts, which is great, but criminals exploit it, sending fake alerts to trick people who are new to this system into downloading spyware that steals their banking info.

Inevitable end result will be distrust of the valuable emergency alert system and widespread refusal to use it.

Just in case someone from the region stumbles across this, that news story confirms that the real emergency alert system is (emphasis added) “…un servizio che, per funzionare, non necessita di alcuna azione da parte degli utenti. Come nei test di prova delle scorse settimane, si riceve semplicemente un messaggio automatico che notifica di un evento di interesse, per lo più circoscritto local…”

“…this is not an application but a service which, to work, does not require any action on the part of users. As in the tests of recent weeks, you simply receive an automatic message notifying you of an event of interest, mostly limited locally…”

That’s per Google Translate.

If Dante were around today, he might describe a whole new circle of Hell for people who misuse alert systems this way, perhaps one in which they experience over and over again the disasters that those systems are meant to warn people of.

Not that I’m vindictive or anything… 😡

This is also a TalkWeather post.

October 6, 2023, 2:58 p.m., Pacific: The strongest shock thus far in the current swarm is a M3.6.

Dr. Giuseppe de Natale gave an interview (autotranslated) to fanpage.it (of all places!), making it clear that he was speaking as an individual only, saying:

Today new shock 3.6 and seismic swarm. Has anything changed or is it changing compared to the picture we know in recent times?

The strongest event of the sequence (magnitude 3.6 Richter) is located on the eastern edge of Solfatara, less than 2 km deep. As far as we know (I speak here in a personal capacity, as a researcher who has been dealing with these phenomena for 40 years) there is no change taking place: unfortunately, as long as the ground uplift persists, seismicity can only increase.

Myself and our research group have been saying this since 2017, when the seismicity was extremely less pronounced, and I personally warned the leaders of my Institute already in October 2018, reiterating the warning in March 2022, when it was now clear that the seismicity had already increased significantly. After the strongest earthquakes there are generally a few days, or weeks, of less activity; but as long as the ground uplift persists, seismicity unfortunately resumes, and can also generate much stronger events (up to about magnitude 5).

…

…the epicenters of the strongest earthquake…generally occur in the Solfatara-Agnano area and sometimes as far as Via Napoli. The biggest problem is precisely that of buildings located in the immediate vicinity of the strongest earthquakes, which, being extremely superficial, can seriously damage them; even more so considering that they are already tested by previous seismicity.

For this reason, in the areas most at risk, it is extremely urgent to check the state of public and private buildings and clear out the most dilapidated ones. In my certified email dated 18 September 2023 to the Prefecture of Naples, I also suggested that buildings within a short distance of the Solfatara-Agnano area be evacuated as a precaution, while checks were carried out.

It’s unusual for volcanologists to do this — speaking with one voice is emphasized again and again in the papers I’ve read.

This is just the opinion of a layperson, one who is totally out of the picture there, but given Dr. de Natale’s major status (and an already successful career behind him), I get the general impression that there might be a Jaws-like argument going on behind the scenes with the Mayor of Amity Island politicians and other power players over evacuation.

Certainly someone of Dr. de Natale’s stature and accomplishments has less to lose to retaliatory moves than early to mid-career scientists, or the Institute itself.

Well, let’s see how it goes.

October 12, 5:06 p.m., Pacific: Another swarm started tonight, per this (Italian) and other sources from about two hours ago.

The strongest quake thus far, they report, was M1.9, but it was shallow and felt in several neighborhoods.

The quakes are centered in the Solfatara area.

October 10, 2023, 1:47 p.m., Pacific (also posted at TalkWeather): Napoli Today reports (Italian) in detail on the tweaked evacuation plan. This is how to handle a volcano emergency in a major city.

[Layperson opinion] It’s good to encourage people to get out on their own, while also supporting those who ask for assistance.

One question is the possibility of phreatic (steam explosion) eruptions. As I understand it, they don’t give much warning; OTOH, the best minds on the planet (at INGV and abroad) are on this like white on rice and every little twitch and quiver is being analyzed thoroughly. They won’t miss much.

Second: Hydrothermal or magmatic, will the volcano give them 72 hours’ warning? We’ll see. Hopefully, it will just settle down. The positive thing here is that this plan puts residents in the right state of mind to act constructively in the face of whatever Campi Flegrei decides to do.

Third: Things happen fast once eruptions are underway. The million or so people in the Yellow Zone have more options but need to stay on their toes, too.

Fourth: From the little reading I’ve done, it appears that the best outcomes occur when aftermath plans are in place before the emergency. Of course, this is an unprecedented situation — major world city and the size of population at risk — and, really, everyone’s world has already changed forever…but there always comes a future. How will Neapolitans construct theirs, even if there is no eruption?[/Layperson opinion]

Meanwhile, US troops are stationed here, too, and probably very busy these days, given the Middle East situation.

October 8, 2023, 12:15 p.m., Pacific: This update is also a post on TalkWeather.

October 5, 2023, 1:49 p.m., Pacific: The swarms continue. The response includes meetings tonight and tomorrow.

As well, hospitals reportedly (Italian) are conducting their own evacuation drills.

Again, it’s practice, not the real thing. Campi Flegrei is at Yellow alert status still.

I think the concern right now is seismic damage — they can’t be certain of an eruption, but the quakes will likely continue as gases and magmatic fluids rise — INGV’s monitoring indicates that only, just now, not rising magma.

Many of us outsiders have the stereotype of Italians as being too emotional and making a big deal out of every little thing.

I don’t know about that. I do know that there is a reason this people has hung on here for some 2,600 years.

A quote in that linked article (per Google Translate), sums up the reason why:

“The situation has been like this for centuries, we cannot always predict everything but we are optimistic.”

♥️

October 3, 2023, 11:30 p.m., Pacific: They also say in the bulletin that no changes have been noted in monitored parameters.

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

Twitter translation: “As expected, the weekly bulletin of the Vesuvian Observatory confirmed that a significant increase in the speed of ground lifting has been recorded over the last few days. This is the cause of the sharp increase in seismicity.”

This InSAR image is gorgeous (though terrible):

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

October 3, 2023, 11:55 a.m., Pacific: Since the last update there has been another four-pointer — two hours before a Real Madrid game that Naples is hosting, but inspection showed the stadium to be okay.

I didn’t think it needed an update since the overall situation is unchanged.

This, basically:

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

Twitter translation: “Phlegraean Camps UPDATE
A seismic swarm is underway at the Campi Flegrei: from 10.08 pm (local time) on 2 October 2023, a swarm consisting of approximately thirty events with magnitude Md ≥ 0 and maximum magnitude 4.0 ± 0.3 was recorded,

Today, this source (Italian, with live updates) reports that a revision of the Campi Flegrei emergency plan will be out soon.

Read the whole thing, but here’s an excerpt (per Google Translate):

Tgr editorial staff
Rai News 24 • LIVE

NEWS
TIMELINE
LIVE 24 minutes
The earth still shakes

Earthquake, magnitude 4 shock in the Campi Flegrei, people in the street. Earthquake swarm underway

This morning another earthquake of magnitude 3.2 was recorded in the Catanzaro area. Inspection of the Maradona stadium in view of tonight’s Napoli – Real Madrid match shows no critical issues.

Earthquake, magnitude 4 shock in the Campi Flegrei, people in the street. Earthquake swarm underwayhandle
Naples, Earthquake: still people on the streets, afraid to go home

8.26pm 03 October

Musumeci: “An Exodus Plan is expected in relation to bradyseism”

In the provision that the Government is preparing in relation to the earthquake shocks at the Campi Flegrei in Naples “an exodus plan is envisaged in relation to bradyseism, because for the volcanic risk the Plan already exists and just needs to be updated”. This was stated by the Minister for Civil Protection, Nello Musumeci, interviewed on Tg1.
“It is – he explained – a tool that will be adopted only in cases of extreme necessity, but having it, developing it and keeping it updated is a good prevention practice”. Substantially, the minister said, the decree “provides for three other points: a plan to evaluate the vulnerability of the existing building stock, both public and private; a plan for communication, which takes on a very important function: At this moment we shouldn’t create alarms but we shouldn’t underestimate either, and we plan to involve the schools too. And the strengthening of civil protection structures in local authorities”.

I’ll keep following that page and checking the news, too.

And if you come across anything I haven’t mentioned; hear rumors or sensationalized coverage — there’s lots of it online (this event is Christmas in autumn for click-harvesting sites 🙁); or want to share your experiences from the hazard zone, please do! The comments section is always open.

October 1, 2023, 1:35 p.m., Pacific: The low-level swarm continues, with news reports describing it centered around the Solfatara geothermal area this time.

This article (Italian) provides the first real-life interpretation that I’ve seen (my knowledge is not extensive) of Naples-area volcano emergency evacuation plans.

Hopefully, it won’t be needed. Even if not, residents will now have a more helpful mindset for dealing with whatever their volcanoes eventually throw at them.

Evacuation is no longer just a paper exercise.

That four-pointer last week may have indirectly saved hundreds of thousands to millions of lives in the future.

October 1, 2023, 12:55 a.m., Pacific: No new tweets from INGV. Per this source (autotranslated), the low-level seismicity continues:

Night of shocks – yet another – for the Campi Flegrei. The Vesuvian Observatory, in fact, detected around 12 tremors starting at 3am. The most significant – clearly felt also by residents of the area – was recorded at 6.42am. The seismic event, at a depth of 4.9 km, has a magnitude of 2.2. There have also been many reports from frightened citizens on social media.

I took a look at X’s latest posts on “Campi Flegrei,” and while it didn’t help much because I don’t read Italian, there are many posts coming in all the time.

People are excited. Frankly, that’s better than sitting around, either oblivious or paralyzed in fear. From the little I could read, at least some people are thinking about practical steps like preparing for evacuation.

Better to act now — plan and prepare — than to let the volcano control things, if it ever does erupt.

Media sources (like Il Messaggero’s article, linked below) as well as the scientists are reaching out to everyone all the time to keep them up to date.

How lucky everyone in the area is to have such reliable news sources. Many living around dangerous volcanoes elsewhere don’t have this advantage.

Alert level is unchanged and civil authorities haven’t called an evacuation, but I would have my go-back packed and ready, arrangements made for my pets, and would be setting up possible out-of-zone living arrangements now, just in case, even if I lived in the Yellow Zone, certainly if in the Red.

And, like everyone else, I’d throw a huge block party when things quieted down without further trouble (always think positive!).

September 30, 2023, 11:37 a.m., Pacific: Per the Positano News (Italian) via Google Translate:

Last night, the Campi Flegrei area was shaken by a series of tremors and explosions due to a seismic swarm. The seismic activity began at 11.25pm ​​last night and has continued to affect the region. The Vesuvian Observatory has recorded 8 earthquakes so far, with the most powerful occurring at 11.57pm in via Vigna, with a magnitude of 2.5 and a depth of 2.6 kilometres. Another magnitude 2 earthquake occurred at 1:46 a.m. in the Gulf.

I’m not sure what they mean by “explosions.” INGV has tweeted nothing yet about explosive events.

Perhaps it’s a reference to the sharp shocks and noises that accompany quakes, and something got lost in translation?

Also, Il Messaggero has an excellent summary of the situation thus far (Italian) that is probably in simple Italian because it translates into simple English (via GT).

I think that is a very helpful way to inform and update the 1.3 million people in the Red and Yellow evacuation zones (and the millions more nearby).

That number is from the article. Also, they quote an INGV director’s telling officials that the two most likely outcomes at this point look to be either a bradyseismic crisis like that of the 1980s or, worst case, a Monte Nuovo-style eruption.

And as all INGV scientists say in the interviews I’ve read, changes in monitored parameters that would most likely come before an eruption have not yet been detected.

[Layperson speculation] The reason why such a large volcano can produce such relatively small, localized eruptions — though Monte Nuovo’s birth surely didn’t feel small to people in the 1500s! — is because this happens when a dike reaches the surface:

This process is usually very slow until just before the eruption, and it can stall out at depth.

Unfortunately, there is no way for volcanologists to look down there and see what’s happening.

As the dike rises, there are gas and water chemistry/temperature changes, etc., at the surface that they CAN watch closely.

What the boffins are saying is that NO such changes have been noted.

That is very good news, and I hope it never changes.

But bradyseismic crises are still terrible for the people in Pozzuoli, and the seismicity can damage neighboring buildings and infrastructure.

Let’s hope this 18-year-old episode is almost over.[/Layperson speculation]

September 29, 5:36 p.m., Pacific: Some low-level seismicity has happened again within the last two hours, per this source (Italian).

It was inside the caldera, in the Solfatara region, but reportedly felt in western Naples, too.

I don’t imagine many people there are sleeping heavily these days.

September 29, 3:11 p.m., Pacific: Excellent interview (autotranslated) with an INGV official about the situation.

September 28, 2023, 1:47 p.m., Pacific: (Please excuse any formatting errors; the stalkers are messing around.)

I’m not a regular Guardian reader but like some of their science articles.

And this is the best volcano science article written for nonscientists that I’ve read to date.

An excerpt:

Seismic activity on Campi Flegrei, a constellation of ancient volcanic craters, has intensified over the past year and especially in recent months, with more than 80 events occurring in the early hours of Wednesday morning, the biggest being a 4.2 magnitude quake.

“Considering that seismic activity has only increased in recent months, at the moment we don’t see an end,” Carlo Doglioni, the president of Italy’s National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV), told TGCom24.
Hills surround the town of Pozzuoli, near Naples.

Doglioni said the best-case scenario would be that the activity ends, as it did after a long period of unrest in the early 1980s, while the worst would be an eruption akin to the last one in 1538, which created a series of small hills and craters.

Doglioni said the best-case scenario would be that the activity ends, as it did after a long period of unrest in the early 1980s, while the worst would be an eruption akin to the last one in 1538, which created a series of small hills and craters.

“We are monitoring the situation but we don’t know how it will evolve,” he said. “In the event of an eruption, we don’t know when or where it could happen. However small, it would cause social unrest.”

Campi Flegrei is home to at least 360,000 people across seven of the most at-risk inhabited hubs, including a part of Naples.

Two especially enjoyable notes about the article:

  1. Unlike every other online Anglophone article I’ve read thus far, they avoid use of the word “supervolcano,” which this layperson thinks, for reasons explained in my Campania volcanism blog post from reading up on Campi Flegrei, is an iffy term here, as opposed to Yellowstone, Long valley, etc.

    Campi Flegrei might have only been one of the contributing vents to that “hurricane of ash” 39 thousand years ago — let the scientists duke it out.

    When you’re on the receiving end, in Pozzuoli, Naples, and/or elsewhere, the distinction between VEI 7 (documented at Campi Flegrei) or VEI 8 (super) categories doesn’t matter much.

    At least, the Guardian writers avoided the term. 👏👏

    Though I probably wouldn’t have brought in astronomy as a subsitute.

    The problem is that right now the public wants Campi Flegrei explained to them in understandable terms, and even for volcanologists, this is an extremely complicated volcano.

  2. I also like that they did their homework and discovered something scary and reported it: that paper about possible weakening of the caldera lid. I mentioned it a while back (see below somewhere) but didn’t mention it again now because of its concerning nature and also because it’s only one research paper.

    The Guardian went there then (see link in article) and they’re continuing to point it out. 👏👏

    [Layperson speculation] As for its just being a single study, it seems to me that the Italian volcanologists’ response now shows that they are taking that paper seriously, as of course they should whether or not they personally agree with its conclusions.[/Layperson speculation]

Again, likely worst-case scenario: a Monte Nuovo-like eruption, not another Campanian ignimbrite or Neapolitan Yellow Tuff blast (both of which probably would have HUGE precursors unlike anything noted during recorded history).

But in this densely populated zone, even a phreatic blast would be disastrous. A new cinder cone eruption, probably located in between Pozzuoli and downtown Naples would be a catastrophe.

Yet the volcano is only doing what volcanoes do, and at a relatively low level, too.

As awful as this situation must be for all stakeholders, how the Italians cope with Campi Flegrei now will guide all of us in the future whenever we’re faced with some natural hazard of similar proportions.

It’s tough, to say the least, but the fact that H. Sapiens is still around and thriving shows that we can do this.

Somehow. Sigh.

September 27, 8:36 p.m., Pacific: Per this story (Italian), INGV’s director — another prominent name in my Campania reading — said:

Volcanologist Mauro Di Vito: “It’s premature to talk about evacuations at the Campi Flegrei, but more intense tremors are now possible”

Dr. De Natale talks about seismic hazard, too, at the link in the previous update below, but he apparently thinks it should be considered.

[Layperson speculation] Dr. De Natale also spoke of phreatic, i.e., steam explosions either on their own or as the initial stage of an eruption.

I think an impending eruption, because of magma movement and effects, would show precursors — changes in the monitored signs of gas, chemistry, etc. — so that warnings could be issued.

As I understand it, steam explosions do not. They just happen.

Scientists and officials in a very difficult situation at Campi Flegrei, facing the possibility at the very least of something like this —

— or putting tens of thousands through something like this:

Rione Terra is now an open-air museum, per Wikipedia.

[/Layperson speculation]

Sigh.

September 27, 2023, 3:55 p.m., Pacific: INGV announced (Italian) that the swarm is over; no other news thus far.

September 27, 2023, 12:09 p.m., Pacific: A four-pointer occurred overnight. Per this Reuters article, no damage has been reported yet.

However, this part of the article caught my eye (from my reading for the Campania volcanism blog posts a while back, I know that Dr. De Natale is a top expert).

Speaking in a personal capacity, De Natale said the last time Campi Flegrei suffered a similar burst of earthquakes in the 1980s, some 40,000 people were temporarily evacuated from nearby Pozzuoli. The town now has a population of more than 80,000.

“Currently, I believe the more immediate risk is seismic. But it is clear that one must also consider the possibility of an eruption,” he told Reuters.

He said if there was an eruption, it would be a phreatic, or steam-blast eruption — which are generally relatively weak and devoid of new magma — at least initially.

There was no sign of structural damage in the area after Wednesday’s tremor.

De Natale confirmed a report in Corriere Della Sera newspaper that he had written to the government last week suggesting possible evacuations. A local official said his recommendation was being reviewed.

[Layperson speculation] The fact that it’s Dr. De Natale speaking and that Reuters is now covering it (news up til now I’ve had to mine from local online publications and run through a translation machine), as well as some of the wording, makes this significant — just one example re: wording is the “personal opinion” nature of this conversation, which takes guts considering the big potential here for mass panic, the challenging logistics of evacuation, the strong influence of legit and criminal interests that would be affected by an evacuation, along with the country’s history of charging scientists and emergency managers after a disaster.[/Layperson speculation]

September 26, 2023, 3:30 p.m., Pacific: Per Google translation of today’s routine bulletin (Italian; PDF), 191 quakes were detected during the reporting period; monitoring parameters are unchanged, though the land rise might be a little faster (they’ll be checking that in coming weeks); and overall, right now it looks as though there will be no major developments at Campi Flegrei in the short term.

September 24, 2023, 1:22 p.m., Pacific: No significant changes; I just like the way this article (autotranslated) starts and its details on the ongoing seismic swarm:

The earth shook again. The population of the Campi Flegrei was unable to have a peaceful Sunday afternoon because..

Exactly the sort of thing one would say about a noisy neighbor on a quiet Sunday in the ‘burbs: Neapolitans and active volcanoes go back a long way. 🙂

The informed reporting is solid, too. Along with scientists, these and other local journalists are keeping a very close eye on the INGV data page.

September 23, 2023, 12:28 p.m., Pacific: Reportedly (autotranslated), another swarm is ongoing; as for public reaction, the story only mentions that some people have felt a few stronger, but still low-level shocks. No new tweets from INGV.

Per TeleIschia (autotranslated):

“No data suggests the presence of magma near the surface, which is the necessary condition for an eruption to occur.” This was assured by Francesca Bianco, director of the volcanoes department of the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (Ingv), after the new earthquake tremors (maximum magnitude 3.0 at 11:02) in the Campi Flegrei. “The rise of magma, in fact, would be announced by very evident anomalies in the measurements – explains the INGV researcher…

Read the whole thing.

September 15, 2023, 5:02 p.m., Pacific: A look at Il Mattino (autotranslated) shows that some Neapolitanos are responding to the crisis as their ancestors — near as well as distant — always have:

The Madonna of the Bradyseism, per Google translation of the “Il Mattino” news story.

I think that continuity of tradition is sincere and wonderful to see in the 21st century — a good reminder of our long history of coping with fire mountains and of the very shallow soil that holds Science and its roots.

BUT…

I hope everyone also has familiarized themselves with the formal Campi Flegrei emergency plan, worked out their own individual evacuation plan, as well as signed up for the new SMS emergency alert system.

As well, volcano-savvy Japanese have some good advice: “Do not rely on authorities” and “Be frightened effectively.”

There are no new status updates tweeted by INGV, but they did post a nice article (autotranslated) on their Campi Flegrei monitoring network.

This is the volcanological equivalent of a round-the-clock ICU watch. And they have been doing this for years!

September 12, 2023, 10:23 a.m., Pacific: No new word from INGV, other than the regular monthly bulletin that (per Google Translate) contains the usual outlook: “Based on the current picture of volcanic activity outlined above, no such elements are highlighted to suggest significant short-term developments. N.B. Any changes in the monitored parameters may result in a different evolution of the danger scenarios described above.

INGV | Vesuvian Observatory – Campi Flegrei Weekly Bulletin 12/09/2023”

From MeteoWeb (autotranslated):

Fear in the night in Naples and Pozzuoli . A new earthquake has occurred in the Campi Flegrei area . INGV reports an earthquake with a magnitude of Md 2.9 , which occurred at 04:28 at a depth of 2 km. The event was felt in particular by the population of Naples, Pozzuoli, Pomigliano d’Arco, Torre del Greco and Caserta (data from the INGV “Hai Sentito il Terremoto” service).

INGV hasn’t tweeted anything about a swarm yet.

Per this source, Campanians got a test alert message on their cell phones today.

It reportedly is part of a national program. I’ll bet many Neapolitans sign up, particularly if the guarantees of anonymity are true (I understand that organized crime of various sorts is one of Naples’ major problems, but criminals are people, too, and will need to evacuate if a crisis calls for it.)

September 11, 7:57 p.m., Pacific: No new word from INGV, but I like this article (Italian).

Per Google Translate:

In the Campi Flegrei area, during Thursday 7 September 2023, a 3.8 degree tremor occurred, the strongest ever felt in the last 39 years. Despite the absence of scientific data regarding a modification of the current scenario from a seismic point of view, the question arises spontaneously: what would happen in the event of an eruption at Campi Flegrei?

Campi Flegrei, the scenario in the event of an earthquake

The scenario would involve a population of around 500 thousand citizens in the red zone and another 800 thousand in the red zone: for this reason it becomes essential to go back to talking, with responsibility, about a very structured evacuation plan to deal with a possible earthquake…

People are working through that scary moment of realization: “Campi Flegrei is real, and I live in/next door to it.”

I wish them well.

Stronger earthquakes likely will occur, either on their own or as precursors to an eruption (per sources in original post, probably one like that in 1538, not something high end).

Whatever eventually comes — hopefully, not for a long time — such realizations, acted upon with planning and drills now, do improve survival chances in a volcanic crisis, according to many papers I read for the Decade Volcano eBook.

September 9, 2023, 2:40 p.m., Pacific Per INGV, in an excellent detailed update (scroll down for the English version):

Currently the probability of a volcanic eruption is relatively low, precisely because there is no evidence of magma rising towards the surface. Furthermore, the uplifted crustal volume currently amounts to much less than km3, constraining the size of the fluids in the uplift feed area. Seismic and geochemical data, ground deformations, surface and well thermal variations, gravimetric variations do not currently provide indications that the magma is rising towards the surface. However, the volcano has its unstoppable natural evolution and, sooner or later, it will erupt again. The attention of INGV-OV is maximum in the collection, study and interpretation of data and any variation is and will always be discussed and communicated promptly to the Civil Protection bodies at its various levels.

This is the last part, via Google Translate because it was in Italian.

September 8, 2023, 9:33 a.m., Pacific: Aaaand, it’s over —

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

— but I’ll keep this pinned for a while and see what happens next.

Pity we don’t have data for the Monte Nuovo eruption, to look into precursors for such an eruption. Again, as I understand the papers I’ve read, anything stronger than that, getting up into VEI 7 or so, presumably would have huge precursors, which are not present. So, there’s no need to stress out over the “supervolcano” clickbait and concerned-but-badly-confused stuff out there.

September 7, 2023, 5:32 p.m., Pacific: From INGV about five hours ago: “At 19:45 local time on 7/9/2023 a seismic event was recorded in Campi Flegrei with a magnitude md =3 .8+/-0.3. Updates will follow as the phenomenon evolves. Learn more about https://buff.ly/45EBvyb” (Twitter translation)

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

Per an INGV tweet approximately four hours ago, another swarm is underway.

August 29, 9:59 a.m., Pacific: In this week’s update (Italian), they do call the August 21 quakes a swarm. Since the strongest in that series was only M2.5, I guess they tweeted about earlier swarms because of the greater intensity and associated public concern.

Per Google Translate:

2. EXPECTED SCENARIOS

On the basis of the current framework of volcanic activity outlined above, no elements are highlighted such as to suggest significant short-term developments.

N.B. Any changes in the monitored parameters may lead to a different one
evolution of the hazard scenarios described above.

3. SEISMOLOGY

In the week from 21 to 27 August 2023, in the Campi Flegrei area, 68
earthquakes with magnitude Md≥0.0 (Mdmax=2.6±0.3; Figure 3.1). 44 earthquakes were recorded during 1 earthquake swarm starting at 02:48 UTC on 21/08 with Mdmax=2.5, which occurred in the Pozzuoli area.

August 24, 2023, 8:53 a.m., Pacific: There some new online news reports of a seismic swarm, but I find no INGV confirmation of one.

Instead, they blogged about it (scroll down that linked post for the English version).

August 23, 2023, 7:39 a.m., Pacific: There are no new announcements from INGV. I did see this article (Italian), with comments from two volcanologists whose names are very familiar to me from the Campanian blog post series.

Per Google Translate:

Mauro Antonio Di Vito, director of the INGV Vesuvius observatory, said the ongoing activity at the Campi Flegrei can be defined as an “intense bradyseismic crisis”. Since 2018, the institute’s instruments have detected the ascent of magmatic gases that previously remained in the depths, but there are no signs that suggest an imminent eruption of magma. “There is nothing at the moment that indicates a magmatic expansion towards the surface, but we cannot exclude anything,” Di Vito clarified. “Science suggests updating emergency plans, picking up the thread of evacuation drills and being cautious, raising awareness among the population without fueling psychosis”.

In an interview with Manifesto [Italian] Giuseppe De Natale, manager of INGV and former director of the Vesuvius observatory, explained that the risk is not linked so much to a magmatic eruption, but to a phreatic eruption, i.e. of boiling water and steam , no less catastrophic especially if in a densely populated area such as the western area of a large city such as Naples. “Rocks don’t have infinite resistance,” said De Natale. «If this pressure continues to increase, sooner or later they will no longer yield as small earthquakes but as a general collapse, therefore with large fractures that can connect the surface with the pressure source. We hope that this increase in pressure ends before the system goes into complete breakdown.”

August 22, 2023, 9:23 a.m., Pacific: INGV did not announce a new swarm. Instead, here is their weekly update link:

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

Bottom line (per Google Translate):

On the basis of the current framework of volcanic activity outlined above, no elements are highlighted such as to suggest significant short-term developments.

N.B. Any changes in the monitored parameters may lead to a different one
evolution of the hazard scenarios described above.

Yay! (for now).

August 21, 2023, 9:08 a.m., Pacific: Per many Italian-language online news sources and what probably is the Mayor of Pozzuoli’s Facebook page, another swarm began overnight.

I discounted the news at first because INGV and that Japanese seismologist (see tweets below) haven’t mentioned it yet. However, this INGV page does show increased numbers of quakes on the 21st.

They have been very low in intensity, for the most part. Nevertheless, some locals reportedly stayed outside last night.

It’s difficult to follow because whatever the Italian sites use for that mandatory EU cookie popup freezes Google Translate on my equipment, and I don’t read Italian.

Well, let’s wait and see what develops through subsequent hours.

August 18, 2023, 6:37 p.m., Pacific: No new updates from INGV, but they must be watching it closely.

Here is a tweet I just found from someone in Japan who sounds knowledgeable:

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

Twitter translation: “Italy Campi Flegrei earthquake, the situation until a while ago. Epicenter distribution from August 1 (shallower than 3 km) from INGV hypocenter data, M-T map from this year, and cumulative number. Most of M, who was undecided at the preliminary stage, has also been decided. It’s calmed down a bit, but I can see that there were a lot of earthquakes in the last few days.”

The second post in the thread:

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

Twitter translation: “M-T If you zoom in on the chart and the time axis, you can see that the most frequent occurrence occurred on the morning of the 18th, UTC. Now it has subsided to the activity level before the 18th.”

Of course, the elephant in the room is the finding by some researchers of possible weakening of the crust covering the caldera, referenced farther down in the original post and also here:

[LAYPERSON SPECULATION]That might be what INGV was referencing, in their statement earlier today, about the center at Pozzuoli being unchanged.

From all that I’ve read and understood, if Campi Flegrei is going to erupt in our lifetime, it will probably be there in the Solfatara area where the August 18th swarm happened. That’s a point source — not caldera wide — and it underlines what Dr. Klemetti wrote (linked in original post farther down) about the next eruption most likely to be small, like the VEI 3 Monte Nuovo one several centuries ago.

Nice videography. Here is Monte Nuovo’s story in English.

That’s bad enough, of course, especially in an urban area, but thankfully it’s no VEI 7+ stuff.[/LAYPERSON SPECULATION]

August 18, 11:33 a.m., Pacific: Now they say the swarm has ended:

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

It’s a little confusing, and I’ll keep this pinned for a while.

PS: Here is an excellent (but unofficial, AFAIK) thread on the swarm, shared about five hours ago (Twitter can translate it):

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

August 18, 2023, 10:24 a.m., Pacific: Don’t panic. I’m pinning this to counter the rumor factory that probably will explode when it sinks in for everyone that there is a seismic swarm ongoing at Campi Flegrei.

Hope it doesn’t break the Internet.

Here is what the experts report (autotranslated):

Seismic swarm at Campi Flegrei on 08.18.2023 – Director’s update at 5.50 pm

From 1:57 (local time) on 18 August 2023 a “seismic swarm at the Campi Flegrei” was recorded consisting of about 115 events with magnitude (Md) ≥ 0, of which 34 of Md ≥ 1 and maximum magnitude 3.6 ± 0.3 , registered by the Vesuvius Observatory Monitoring Network of the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV). The epicenters are located in the Accademia-Solfatara area (Pozzuoli).

Mauro Di Vito, Director of the INGV Vesuvius Observatory,declares: “The dynamics of the Campi Flegrei is constantly monitored by the monitoring networks of the Vesuvian Observatory, in close contact with the Civil Protection Department. The geophysical and geochemical parameters analysed, both in the well and in the hydrothermal emissions, indicate the persistence of the ongoing dynamics, with ground uplift, which presents an average speed of about 15 mm/month from the beginning in the area of ​​maximum deformation in the Rione Terra of 2023, and no significant geochemical changes in the last week. Even the analysis of the planimetric deformation data of the ground do not show significant variations with respect to the characteristic radial shape from the central area of ​​Pozzuoli. At present there are no elements such as to suggest significant evolutions of the system in the short term.

Welcome to the wonderful world of restless calderas. Yellowstone has swarms, too.

It’s worth watching, but remember, no matter what you read online from other, non-INGV/volcanologist sources: they haven’t seen any reason yet to raise the alert level, which currently is Yellow (Italian).

Original post:

Which part is the volcano?

Everything you see here, plus what the photographer is standing on and lots more that wouldn’t fit in the lens view.

You have to be in space to see the whole caldera: there’s an image of it farther down in the post.

Campi Flegrei made the news recently when researchers published a study showing that the “lid” on this restless caldera might have weakened over the last few decades.

Since Campi Flegrei might have had one prehistoric eruption approaching “super” size, and it definitely is capable of producing big blasts, an outbreak of doomsday headlines in response to that news almost broke the Internet for a few days, but those have since subsided.

So what’s really going on?

Dr. Erik Klemetti discusses that question: the volcano, the study, and what might be possible outcomes, given this new finding.

The worst likely scenario, he notes, might be a repeat of Campi Flegrei’s 1538 eruption of a cinder cone.

That’s listed as a VEI 3 on the GVP page.

Since millions of people now live and work in and around the area, that would be bad enough, but Italian volcanologists monitoring Campi Flegrei have in the past modeled an even stronger eruption’s effects —

Ugh.

As bad as that is, it doesn’t approach the “real wrath-of-God stuff” that would accompany something on the order of the Neapolitan Tuff or Campanian Ignimbrite eruptions, but such events presumably would have very big precursors — nothing like that is apparent now; if it were, experts from all over the world would be converging on Naples, and they aren’t.

Still, it seems like a good time to repost this slightly edited look at Campi Flegrei from a few years ago, just as a reintroduction to a remarkable volcano — the first video has been taken down, apparently, but I’m leaving it because of the screenshot from it farther down.

Here is another scenic video to replace it:

Just remember: all of the land under those pretty places and all of the beautiful blue bay out there is part of Campi Flegrei caldera.

Yes.

Original post from the Campania Plain series:

NASA, via Wikimedia

Gah!

But close up, Campi Flegrei (the “Burning Fields”) is actually quite pretty.

See note above. Look for saddle-shaped Vesuvius in the background from time to time, starting at around 1:21. Downtown Naples is hiding on the other side of Posillipo Hill, which rises in the middle distance and stretches out seemingly at the foot of Vesuvius (look close and you’ll get a little blue glimpse of the great Gulf of Naples beyond that really separates Posillipo and that volcano; you could also check out the view from Vesuvius).

True, the ground rises and falls in disconcerting ways (bradyseism), as though everyone, from 6th century BC Greek colonists onward, built their civilization on the chest of a slumbering giant.

And there are occasional one-shot (technically, monogenetic) volcanic eruptions here. The last one of these built Monte Nuevo, a huge spatter cone, in 1548 AD (check it out in our video at 0:42, coming in from the left).

Much older than this centuries-old “New Mountain” are the explosions and other steam-driven geological activity that constructed the Miseno peninsula, where this video begins, thousands of years ago.

For that matter, the island you see just behind Miseno, called Procida, is made up of old volcanoes, but those haven’t shown any sign of life for well over 10,000 years.

Only the Solfatara — literally a burning field of fumaroles — bears any resemblance to what most of us would call a volcano.

I couldn’t see Solfatara in our travel video above; the steamy crater is northeast of town (which is called Pozzuoli, by the way) and sits on this side of Posillipo Hill.

Nevertheless, Campi Flegrei is a volcano, and a very important one, too.

Depending on which source you ask, Campi Flegrei was either the vent responsible for the Campanian Ignimbrite eruption (at least 150 km3 of magma erupted) that buried the whole plain about 39,000 years ago (jargon alert) or else it contributed to that cataclysm — the biggest Mediterranean eruption in the last 200,000 years.

As well, Campi Flegrei definitely was the source, some 15,000 years ago, of the Neapolitan Yellow Tuff (almost 50 km3 of magma) that Naples is now built on (and with).

So, where’s the volcano?

Short answer: It’s everything you see in that video: all the land around and underneath the bay. More than 1.5 million people live in it.

Campi Flegrei caldera
Many of the world’s caldera volcanoes have fairly clear-cut outlines, but scientists haven’t quite made up their minds about the Campi Flegrei structure. At the time of writing, the red and blue lines look like the most likely walls for the Campanian Ignimbrite and Neapolitan Yellow Tuff calderas, respectively. (De Natale and others, 2016, per source list, CC BY-NC-ND)

Details: We’ve all seen a partial caldera collapse, but most of us didn’t realize it because it happened slowly and not at the point that was drawing world attention in 2018, when fiery red lava poured out of the flank of Kilauea volcano, ruining the lives and property of many Hawaiians.

But Kilauea’s summit collapse was dramatic, nonetheless.

There was a lava lake at the Kilauea summit for years. When that lava drained into the East Rift and headed for the Puna District, there was nothing left to hold up the summit and it collapsed.

Now imagine that happening with a “gray-lava” volcano — one that explodes rather than having runny red lava flows.

Mount Pinatubo, June 1991. (Image: NOAA via Wikimedia, public domain).

Was there ever a big volcano like Pinatubo or Kilauea where Campi Flegrei sits now?

Years ago, some volcanologists thought so and christened it Archiflegreo, but evidence for this structure has never turned up.

Nowadays, many experts point out that it’s not necessary. The Campania Plain, while one of the most complex geological regions on the planet, exists because the Earth’s crust began to stretch here, many hundreds of thousands of years ago, in response to, among other things, tectonic plate subduction a little farther south, at the Aeolian Islands.

As the ground stretched it cracked, and molten rock made it to the surface in some places. The real-life process, of course, is much more intricate and involved, but it is still true that all of these Neapolitan volcanoes, and the many ignimbrite flows that came before them (of which the Campanian Ignimbrite was the largest), are the result of that ongoing interplay between magmatism and regional tectonic stresses.

Such geologic dances can produce anything from a Vesuvius, towering over the Gulf of Naples, to a hole in the ground, formally, a caldera.

Campania has both a tiny caldera — nearby Ischia — and a whopper, i.e., Campi Flegrei.

Video excerpt
This screenshot from the travel video shows what many consider to be the center of Campi Flegrei caldera: La Starza marine terrace, that small hill just behind town. Beyond that is the larger Posillipo Hill, which is the eastern caldera rim according to some volcanologists. It forms the red line just west of Naples on that caldera map above. And there in the background is Vesuvius, which you might have considered the worst volcanic hazard in Naples until you read this post.

Are Ischia, Vesuvius, and Campi Flegrei related?

That’s hard to say, both because their plumbing systems are miles underground and because of the geological complexity here. Many volcanologists include Campi Flegrei, Ischia, Procida, and a few smaller, older islands nearby in a single volcanic district.

Procida, for example, used to erupt fairly frequently until around 14,000 years ago. It stopped just before the Neapolitan Yellow Tuff eruption, and hasn’t been heard from since.

Too, it’s not completely impossible that Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei, at least, might share a common magma source, despite the distance between them and the geochemical differences in their eruption products. (Zollo 2008) Let’s look a little more closely at such things in a separate post.

Campi Flegrei is especially difficult to study because about half of the known caldera is underwater. But the whole region is heavily urbanized and also contains the residual of thousands of years of human habitation, not to mention burial under massive volcanic deposits and weathering detritus over hundreds of thousands of years.

Geologists can find very few useful outcrops of rock to study here. The scientific literature is filled with references to discoveries made in cellars, tunnels, and other sites that people have dug up.

In 2012, scientists drilled a borehole some 1,600 feet into the ground near Posillipo Hill. They needed to know more about the stratigraphy of the area, the properties of rocks underlying Campi Flegrei, temperature gradients, and the local stress fields.

Of course, this produced highly technical data, but there were two points that most of us can grasp easily:

  1. The caldera rim probably does not underlie downtown Naples (the black dotted line on the map up above is from an earlier study that suggested it did). That’s good news, since Posillipo Hill can, to some extent, protect the city during an eruption.
  2. Campanian Ignimbrite deposits were smaller than expected, lending support to those who suspect that Campi Flegrei was “only” a peripheral vent in that eruption.

Outside of academia, local and national emergency management people are aware (Italian) of the danger.

So why don’t many of those 1.5 million Neapolitans move out of the caldera?

Well, it’s home to them and their ancestors, going thousands of years back in some cases.

And it’s beautiful here, most of the time. Good living is possible, when the volcanoes and the weather cooperate.

It’s the usual complex human story.

All told, some 6 million people are at risk from Neapolitan volcanoes. Next time, we’ll see what authorities are doing to protect them.

Edited June 27, 2023.

Featured image: Alessandro Zappalorto/Shutterstock

Sources:

Agustí, J. and Antón, M. 2002. Mammoths, sabertooths, and hominids: 65 million years of mammalian evolution in Europe. Columbia University Press.

Bellucci, F.; Milia, A.; Rolandi, G.; and Torrente, M. M. 2006. Structural control on the Upper Pleistocene ignimbrite eruptions in the Neapolitan area (Italy): volcano tectonic faults versus caldera faults, in Volcanism in the Campanian Plain: Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei and Ignimbrites–Developments in Volcanology, 9, ed De Vivo, B., 163-180. Elsevier, Amsterdam/Oxford.

Bellucci, F.; Woo, J.; Kilburn, C. R.; and Rolandi, G. 2006. Ground deformation at Campi Flegrei, Italy: implications for hazard assessment. Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 269(1): 141-157.

Black, B. A.; Neely, R. R.; and Manga, M. 2015. Campanian Ignimbrite volcanism, climate, and the final decline of the Neanderthals. Geology, 43(5): 411-414.

Bohrson, W. A.; Spera, F. J.; Fowler, S. J.; Belkin, H. E.; and others. 2006. Petrogenesis of the Campanian Ignimbrite: implications for crystal-melt separation and open-system processes from major and trace elements and Th isotopic data, in Volcanism in the Campanian Plain: Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei and Ignimbrites–Developments in Volcanology, 9, ed De Vivo, B., 249-288. Elsevier, Amsterdam/Oxford.

Branscombe, A. 2017. Deep drilling reveals puzzling history of Campi Flegrei Caldera. https://eos.org/research-spotlights/deep-drilling-reveals-puzzling-history-of-campi-flegrei-caldera Last accessed February 13, 2019.

Colella, A.; Di Benedetto, C.; Calcaterra, D.; Cappelletti, P.; and others. 2017. The Neapolitan Yellow Tuff: an outstanding example of heterogeneity. Construction and Building Materials, 136: 361-373.

Costa, A.; Folch, A.; Macedonio, G.; Giaccio, B.; and others. 2012. Quantifying volcanic ash dispersal and impact of the Campanian Ignimbrite super‐eruption. Geophysical Research Letters, 39(10).

De Natale, G.; Troise, C.; Pingue, F.; Mastrolorenzo, G.; and others. 2006. The Campi Flegrei caldera: unrest mechanisms and hazards. Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 269(1): 25-45.

De Natale, G.; Troise, C.; Mark, D.; Mormone, A.; and others. 2016. The Campi Flegrei Deep Drilling Project (CFDDP): New insight on caldera structure, evolution and hazard implications for the Naples area (Southern Italy). Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, 17(12): 4836-4847.

De Vivo, B.; Petrosino, P.; Lima, A.; Rolandi, G.; and Belkin, H. E. 2010. Research progress in volcanology in the Neapolitan area, southern Italy: a review and some alternative views. Mineralogy and Petrology, 99(1-2): 1-28.

Di Vito, M. A.; Sulpizio, R;, Zanchetta, G.; and D’Orazio, M. 2008. The late Pleistocene pyroclastic deposits of the Campanian Plain: new insights into the explosive activity of Neapolitan volcanoes. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 177(1): 19-48.

Fedele, F. G.; Giaccio, B.; Isaia, R.; and Orsi, G. 2002. Ecosystem impact of the Campanian ignimbrite eruption in Late Pleistocene Europe. Quaternary Research, 57(3): 420-424.

Fedele, L.; Tarzia, M.; Belkin, H. E.; De Vivo, B.; and others. 2006. Magmatic-hydrothermal fluid interaction and mineralization in alkali-syenite nodules from the Breccia Museo pyroclastic deposit, Naples, Italy., in Volcanism in the Campanian Plain: Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei and Ignimbrites–Developments in Volcanology, 9, ed De Vivo, B., 125-161. Elsevier, Amsterdam/Oxford.

Fitzsimmons, K. E.; Hambach, U.; Veres, D.; and Iovita, R. 2013. The Campanian Ignimbrite eruption: new data on volcanic ash dispersal and its potential impact on human evolution. PLoS One, 8(6): e65839.

Geological Society of America. 2015. Did a volcanic cataclysm 40,000 years ago trigger the final demise of the Neanderthals?, via ScienceDaily. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/03/150320112332.htm

Insinga, D.; Calvert, A. T.; Lanphere, M. A.; Morra, V.; and others. 2006. The Late-Holocene evolution of the Miseno area (south-western Campi Flegrei) as inferred by stratigraphy, petrochemistry and 40Ar/39Ar geochronology, in Volcanism in the Campanian Plain: Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei and Ignimbrites–Developments in Volcanology, 9, ed De Vivo, B., 97-124. Elsevier, Amsterdam/Oxford.

Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV). 2019. Campi Flegrei–storia eruttiva (via Google Translate). http://www.ov.ingv.it/ov/en/campi-flegrei/storia-eruttiva.html Last accessed February 13, 2019.

Mason, B. G.; Pyle, D. M.; and Oppenheimer, C. 2004. The size and frequency of the largest explosive eruptions on Earth. Bulletin of Volcanology, 66(8): 735-748.

Milia, A.; Torrente, M. M.; and Giordano, F. 2006. Gravitational instability of submarine volcanoes offshore Campi Flegrei (Naples Bay, Italy), in Volcanism in the Campanian Plain: Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei and Ignimbrites–Developments in Volcanology, 9, ed De Vivo, B., 69-83. Elsevier, Amsterdam/Oxford.

Milia, A.; Torrente, M. M.; Giordano, F.; and Mirabile, L. 2006. Rapid changes of the accommodation space in the Late Quaternary succession of Naples Bay, Italy: the influence of volcanism and tectonics, in Volcanism in the Campanian Plain: Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei and Ignimbrites–Developments in Volcanology, 9, ed De Vivo, B., 53-68. Elsevier, Amsterdam/Oxford.

Oppenheimer, C. 2011. Eruptions That Shook the World. Cambridge University Press.

Peccerillo, A. 2005. Plio-Quaternary Volcanism in Italy (Vol. 365), 13, 129-167. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Perrotta, A.; Scarpati, C.; Luongo, G.; and Morra, V. 2006. The Campi Flegrei caldera boundary in the city of Naples, in Volcanism in the Campanian Plain: Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei and Ignimbrites–Developments in Volcanology, 9, ed De Vivo, B., 85-95. Elsevier, Amsterdam/Oxford.

Pyle, D. M.; Ricketts, G. D.; Margari, V.; van Andel, T. H.; and others. 2006. Wide dispersal and deposition of distal tephra during the Pleistocene ‘Campanian Ignimbrite/Y5’eruption, Italy. Quaternary Science Reviews, 25(21-22): 2713-2728.

Sartori, R. 2003. The Tyrrhenian back-arc basin and subduction of the Ionian lithosphere. Episodes, 26(3): 217-221.

Scandone, R.; Giacomelli, L.; and Speranza, F. F. 2006. The volcanological history of the volcanoes of Naples: a review, in Volcanism in the Campanian Plain: Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei and Ignimbrites–Developments in Volcanology, 9, ed De Vivo, B., 1-26. Elsevier, Amsterdam/Oxford.

Troise, C.; De Natale, G., and Kilburn C. R. J. (eds) 2006. Mechanisms of Activity and Unrest at Large Calderas Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 269: vi-viii.

Turco, E.; Schettino, A; Pierantoni, P. P.; and Santarelli, G. 2006. The Pleistocene extension of the Campania Plain in the framework of the southern Tyrrhenian tectonic evolution: morphotectonic analysis, kinematic model and implications for volcanism, in Volcanism in the Campanian Plain: Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei and Ignimbrites–Developments in Volcanology, 9, ed De Vivo, B., 27-51. Elsevier, Amsterdam/Oxford.

US Geological Survey, Volcano Hazards Program Glossary. 2019. Tuff. https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/vsc/glossary/tuff.html Last accessed February 13, 2019.

Wikipedia. 2019. Campania. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Campania Last accessed February 13, 2019.

___. 2019. Campanian Ignimbrite eruption. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Campanian_Ignimbrite_eruption Last accessed February 15, 2019.

___. 2019. Pozzolana. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pozzolana Last accessed February 13, 2019.

___. 2019. Roman concrete. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman_concrete Last accessed February 13, 2019.

Zollo, A.; Maercklin, N.; Vassallo, M.; Dello Iacono, D.; and others. 2008. Seismic reflections reveal a massive melt layer feeding Campi Flegrei caldera. Geophysical Research Letters, 35(12).

2 comments

Leave a comment

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.